Ireland will go to early elections. Simon Harris, the prime minister, announced he will dissolve the Dáil (Irish Parliament) this week after the budget bill is voted on in Parliament on Tuesday (Nov. 5) and Wednesday by the Senate.
The news is not a bolt from the blue. The Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) had stated: “Now I expect there to be a general election in 2024.” Harris explained the reason, namely his willingness to “ask for a mandate from the citizens of this country and ask them to allow me to continue to be their Taoiseach.”
The problem for Harris was getting approval for the budget manoeuvre and testing the popular vote.
In fact, the leader of the conservative governing party Fine Gael had taken over from his predecessor Leo Varadkar at the end of March this year, after Varadkal decided to resign from both the position of prime minister and party leader.
The 2025 budget is the occasion for the consecration of Harris, in his vision.
It is a measure of about €10.5 billion to be organized toward key areas, such as infrastructure, housing, and support for finance. There is no shortage of elements of change to taxation and social assistance measures, regarding which increases have been planned for social assistance, with increases, for example, in maternity benefits.
As for taxation, the aim is to favour the middle classes. There is a great debate over the so-called Universal Social Charge (USC), an additional tax on incomes above the minimum threshold of 13,000 euros. The government proposes to lower it by one percentage point for middle-income earners, which would be a remarkable change for a measure that started as “temporary” in 2011 and is still standing.
There is bad blood between the Irish parties on this issue, which is likely to be central in the upcoming (and very close) election campaign. As a counter-proposal, the main opposition party, the social-democratic Sinn Féin, wants to abolish the Usc for all incomes up to €45,000. Even more extreme is the proposal of the far-left alliance PBPS (People Before Profit), which would like to keep the additional taxation only for the incomes of the super-rich (over €100,000).
The budget of discord in Ireland could be the springboard for Harris. After passing the baton to him, Fine Gael gradually gained support. He is the first in the governing coalition, with polls showing him at 26 per cent, against 20 for the Republican Fianna Fáil party, also part of the majority along with the Greens.
Sinn Féin’s opposition stops at 18 per cent. A percentage that is sinking due to the politicalscandals of the last period, such as the one involving a party member accused of paedophilia. On this, the leader, Mary Lou McDonald, has had to give quite a few explanations, especially regarding the references given to the suspect by two Sinn Féin colleagues, despite the very serious allegations. “I am furious at what they did,” said McDonald.
The leader’s explanations will have to convince voters, who will be in the whirlwind of a flash campaign when the Irish Parliament is dissolved.
Hot weeks lie ahead for Ireland, which, if confirmed, could go to early elections on Nov. 29.
Fine Gael has benefited from its opponents’ difficulties by asserting its position. Still, the debates are expected to be very heated. Harris comes across as confident enough to press for confirmation directly from the electorate. At the same time, McDonald will have to try to keep her party on its feet and, in between scandals, press the social policies so dear to the Social Democrats.
